📘 The Marketeer Lexicon™
Where traders learn the language of probability.
Welcome to the official glossary of terms used by the Trading Marketeer™ community. These phrases aren’t just jargon — they reflect a system, a philosophy, and a shared commitment to trading with Probability, Precision, and Purpose™.
“If you speak the language of the model, you trade with the confidence of the math.”
Trading Marketeer
🔷 Core Systems & Frameworks
Shafer’s Probability Matrix™
Tagline: Built on Chaos. Designed for Probability.
Calculates how far, how fast, and how likely price is to reverse — ignoring news catalysts and conforming instead to statistical structure.
Smart Credit Ratios™ (SCR)
Motto: “Death Before Debit”™
A debit spread (Call or Put side) combined with one or more naked options — always structured so that the credit collected exceeds the debit paid. Used to engineer asymmetric risk with flexible breakevens.
Types:
SCR 111 – One debit spread, one naked option
SCR 112 – One debit spread, two naked options
SCR 113, etc.
“If you pay for a trade, it’s not a Smart Credit Ratio.”
Market Game Theory™
A proprietary behavioral framework modeling strategic interaction in markets using game theory and simulation.
Module 1:
Market Tit-for-Tat™ – Simulates behavior patterns like cooperation, betrayal, punishment, and reward under market uncertainty.
Future Modules: In development.
📊 Probability-Based Indicators
TOPL – Test of Previous Low
Probability that yesterday’s low will be tested today.
→ High probability = Bearish pressure
MRT – Match Range Theory
Tracks if price closes in the top or bottom half of the day’s range.
Match = Upper 50% (bullish bias)
No Match = Lower 50% (bearish bias)
CRP – Closing Range Probability
Projects the likelihood of price closing above or below a key model-derived level.
CRP Probability: Pre-market calculation
CRP Price Level: Intraday level based on evolving session structure
→ Used to identify expected close zones
TWAP – Time-Weighted Average Price
TWAP DOWN = Average Price Decreasing
TWAP UP = Average Price Increasing
BPG – Bullish Price Gap
Measures directional bias after a Gap Up.
Max probability capped at x% based on 8,000+ occurrences.
SPR Indicators – Shafer Probability Rank Series
Custom probability overlays applied to standard indicators:
SPR 21 EMA – % chance price closes green or red, not necessarily above/below EMA.
SPR RSI – Calculates a net price threshold (e.g., +$0.42) and the % chance price exceeds it.
SPR MACD – Predicts directional close based on MACD momentum, not crossovers.
MBEC – Mother Bar Expansion/Contraction
Measures whether current session breaks above/below the previous day’s range:
Expansion = Both sides tested
Unchanged = Only one side tested
Contraction = Neither side tested
🦋 Options Structures & Signature Phrases
Butterheaven™
Max profit butterfly — perfectly pinned to the body. Trader bliss.
Butterbummer™
Profitable butterfly, but not pinned. Gains, but could’ve been more.
Butterbeat™
Butterfly trade that loses money despite price proximity.
ButterBust™
Complete failure — butterfly setup that never had a chance. Broke structure or ignored the model.
MaxZero Defined Risk™
Custom label for strategies like Cash-Secured Puts or Covered Calls.
→ Defined risk trades that can go to zero, not a typical spread limit.
🧠 Community Identity & Mindset
“I’m a Marketeer”
Proud identity tag of the Trading Marketeer™ community.
→ You trade with probabilities, not emotions.
Market Game Theorist™
A trader who interprets market movement through strategic multi-agent simulations, game theory, and behavioral feedback loops.
“Probability Knows. You Don’t.”™
Phrase used when price action seems irrational, yet ultimately conforms to probability.
→ A reminder: Trust the model.
Resolved Probability
When a signal doesn't play out immediately — but eventually aligns with the model's prediction.
→ Often seen after fakeouts, chop, or false narratives.
Statistical Gravity
The idea that price, no matter how chaotic, gravitates back toward its most probable path or level.
Three Ps of Trading
Probability, Precision, Purpose
→ The strategic mindset behind every setup, entry, and risk decision.
“I didn’t build indicators. I revealed what traders do — over and over — whether they know it or not.”
Marketeer design philosophy — models should reflect reality, not create artificial rules.
🎖️ Marketeer Badge Program
A tiered recognition system rewarding mastery of:
Probability models
Strategic structure
Consistent discipline
→ Become more than a trader. Become a Marketeer of Probability™.
🧠 Marketeer Badge Identity Levels
"Not tiers. Evolutions of thought."
🔹 Level 1: Marketeer (All Marketeers)
Badge: “I’m a Marketeer” Download “I’m a Marketeer”
Meaning: You've chosen the path of probability. You understand the core language of Trading Marketeer™ and apply the foundational tools and mindset.
“I see the market through structure, not noise.”
🔷 Level 2: Probability Theorist (Locked, Earned)
Badge: “Probability Theorist”
Meaning: You trade with the model and you don’t just know the terms — you use the system to frame decisions. You trust the language of probability.
“I don’t chase. I align.”
🌀 Level 3: Probability Designer™ (Locked, Earned)
Badge: “Probability Designer”
Meaning: You’re a Market Game Theorist! You trade with strategic adaptation, not static patterns. You understand feedback loops, probabilistic deception, and long-term behavioral asymmetries. You create your own Probability Models and are a Master of Probabilities.
“I don’t trade price — I trade behavior.”
Anything Trademarked is Proprietary! All terms, phrases, etc. are 100% Free (No Strings), but please give Trading Marketeer credit for anything Trademarked.